The 2019 election is around the corner and there is more clarity on certain aspects thereof than others.

I have done presentations to a few audiences on political trends and the election, and it struck me how uninformed people actually are about election choices. “Who must we vote for?” is the question which constantly resounds first. Of course, AfriForum is not a political party and we also do not tell people how to vote. We want to make Afrikaners free, safe and prosperous at the southern tip of Africa. My task is, through analysis, to better equip people to make the choice themselves.

Before election choices can even be brought up at all, one must however decide if you indeed want to vote or not. For quite a number of people voting is a waste of time and it is understandable that they feel this way. South Africa’s elections are historically not very competitive – 2019 will also prove this – and minorities suffer largely from what the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor calls ‘democratic exclusion’. As individual and member of a minority community you are indeed allowed to vote, but the elections will not bring about sudden and earth-shattering changes. Therefore, the tyranny of the majority will not completely disappear (except perhaps in places such as the Western Cape).

For others, voting is the only escape. “You have to vote, because it is your duty!” rings this chorus. Between these two maximalistic poles lies that (grey) truth: Vote if you can, but definitely do not set all your hope on it. The hard truth is that there will indeed be a parliament, national government, as well as provincial governments and legislators after the election. How those bodies are compiled depends on the number of votes in a system of proportional representation. Parties therefore receive representation in proportion to the number of votes that they receive and according to how people vote on their ballots for a party (or parties) on provincial and national level this year.

You can therefore help to decide how the political decision-making bodies are compiled. Supposing that the ANC receives 70% of the national votes in the election, they then receive 70% of the National Assembly (NA) to therefore make harmful laws.

This is only an example, but just shows in severe terms what could happen. Incidentally, they currently have about 62% of the seats in the NA. But you would much rather want to best an ANC at 60% than one at 80%. And you would rather want to temper them at the ballot box than attempt to combat their legislative power ‘retrospectively’.

Ditto for the provincial legislators, where policies are also enacted that are applicable to the respective provinces.

How will the political landscape look after the election?

One can say with reasonable certainty that the ANC will again win this election quite easily. The surveys fluctuate drastically, but the lowest position of the ANC in a survey was 54%. As the largest party they also get more votes on election day than what the surveys of several months prior indicate.

The question is however with how much they will win and what the permutations will be for the rest of the parties’ support. Should the ANC’s support be closer to 50% than to 60% and the EFF makes a name for itself, these two parties – which are ideologically aligned the closest – can possibly form coalitions in provinces such as Northwest and Limpopo. The ANC can also become more populistic and vote with the EFF in the NA on issues such as expropriation without compensation.

The question is also how the DA and smaller parties will fare. In the national election of 2014, the DA received 22,23% of the votes. The surveys indicate that they can attract anything between 20% and 24% of the votes. It will be utterly disappointing for them should they, in the midst of the ANC’s big catharsis, at best not be able to even attract a quarter of the votes. They did not do themselves any favours however by continually choosing sides in racial uproars.

The EFF is currently an unknown factor. They are campaigning rather quietly in terms of posters and other initiatives. The surveys place them on anything between 6% and 12% – and it would be dangerous should they be able to get 12%.

The FF+ is surely leading its largest and most visible campaign to date and they can expect to woo away a great deal of support from the DA and stand stronger in the north of the country and in Parliament after the elections. The rest of the smaller parties are, with all due respect, no actual factor and one can deduct this from their (absent) campaigns and visibility. Perhaps they are saving the heavy artillery for a week or two before the elections, but it is doubtful.

Ultimately the answer does not lie in making your mark every few years, but in the difference that the citizenry makes 365 days of each year.